Viral data: Key indicators related to how COVID19 is impacting the U.S. (April 2 update)

Author’s note: This is the second update I’ve put together. As with the first, this remains an experiment and I welcome your feedback. If you want to see my spreadsheets (and help check my work), e-mail me.

April 2nd summary:

• Employment: 6,648,000 million Americans sought unemployment benefits in the fourth week in March, doubling the 3.28 million the claims filed the previous week. This is, again ,far and away the highest reported initial unemployment claim number ever reported in U.S. history.
• COVID19 screenings: 1.2 million Americans have now been screened for the virus, more than twice the number reported last week. This works out to 368 screenings for every 100,000 Americans, with rates highest in New York (1,135), Louisiana (985), and Washington (865).
• COVID19 diagnoses: 210,000 Americans — 64 of every 100,000 — have tested positive for COVID19. This than three times the rate just one week ago. New York still far outpaces every other state in positive test results with 430 of every 100,000 state residents, followed by New Jersey is still (251), and Louisiana (138).
• Hospitalizations: Over 31,000 people are hospitalized for COVID19 in the 41 states that are tracking this information. The COVID19 hospitalization rate is far higher in New York than any other state, at 94.4 per 100,000. Louisiana is a distant second (32.2), followed by Connecticut (21.5).
• COVID19 deaths: 4,686 people had died of COVID19 as of April 1st; up five-fold from the 900 reported last week. This works out to 1.4 of every 100,000 Americans. New York’s death rate has skyrocketed up to 10 per 100,000, and Louisiana is a distant second at 5.9.
• Stock market: The market has fallen precipitously, losing about one-quarter of its value over the past month — but, on net, has held steady over the past week.
• Public opinion: A recent Pew Research Center shows that our impressions of the virus are related to the news sources we consume.
• Decennial census: so far, in the midst of the pandemic, 38.4% of U.S. households have responded to the once-in-a-decade complete count.

COVID-19 Screenings, Cases, and Deaths

As the pandemic spreads across the country it is hitting local areas at different rates, and each state is developing its own response. Most often we hear national data, and even when we hear local numbers they are typically just that — numbers — not normalized to the population of the area(s) in question. Here we show screening, positive cases, and deaths as rates per 100,000 people to allow easier comparisons.

Though data sources and quality are rapidly evolving, The Covid 19 Tracking Project is doing at least as good a job as anyone, and (currently) a much better job than the CDC at trying to assemble screening information. Note: please see covidtracking.com for the methodology and limitations of their data.

Total screenings: As of April 1, about 1.2 million screenings have been conducted nation-wide; 368 for every 100,000 Americans. This is more than double just 1 week ago. Several states have higher rates, especially those where the virus appears to be spreading earlier. New York leads the nation, with 1,135 screenings per 100,000, Louisiana with 985, and Washington at 865. Last week the top three states were New York (over 500), followed by Washington (449), and New Mexico (326).

Note: Hover over lines to see states and rates, and click here to see a full screen version of above graph.

Positive screenings: As of April 1, 210,000 Americans — 64 of every 100,000 — have tested positive for COVID19. This than three times the rate just one week ago.

New York still far outpaces every other state in positive test results with 430 of every 100,000 state residents. New Jersey is still in distant second at 251, and Louisiana is at 138. Last week New York was at 158, New Jersey was 50, and Louisiana was 39. Washington was in 4th place with 32 positive screenings per 100,000 state residents. Even though Washington state’s positives are now at 74, they have now been outpaced by Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Michigan.)

Note: Hover over lines to see states and rates, and click here to see a full screen version of above graph.

Hospitalizations: As of April 1st, over 31,000 people were hospitalized for COVID19 in the 41 states that are tracking this information. That works out to a rate of 11.3 COVID19 hospitalizations for every 100,000 Americans.

The COVID19 hospitalization rate is far higher in New York than any other state, at 94.4 per 100,000. Louisiana is a distant second (32.2), followed by Connecticut (21.5).

Note: Hover over lines to see states and rates, and click here to see a full screen version of above graph.

Deaths: 4,686 people had died of COVID19 as of April 1st; up five-fold from the 900 reported last week. This works out to 1.4 of every 100,000 Americans. New York’s death rate has skyrocketed up to 10 per 100,000, and Louisiana is a distant second at 5.9.

Last week four states lead all others in death rates: Washington (1.6) New York (1.5), Louisiana (1.4), and Vermont (1.3) all approaching Washington’s rate of 1.6. Now New Jersey (4.0) and Michigan (3.4)outpace both Washington (2.9) and Vermont (2.6).

Note: Hover over lines to see states and rates, and click here to see a full screen version of above graph.

Unemployment

This morning the U.S. Department of Labor reported another astounding number of initial unemployment claims: during the fourth week in March 6,648,000 million Americans sought unemployment benefits. This is more than twice the historic high of 3.28 million reported for the third week in March, and 30 times higher than the average weekly claims of about 212,000 in January and February.

While unemployment claims are undoubtedly related to the pandemic, they are only loosely related to screening rates or deaths. For the week ending in March 28, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, and Michigan lead the nation, at least in these not-seasonally-adjusted rates.

Note: Hover over map to see states and rates, and click here to see a sorted list of rates by state.

Stock market

The market is down dramatically. On April 1st, the S&P 500 closed at 2,470, basically unchanged from last week. Like last week, this is down 24% from the index’s opening value of 3,258 on January 2, 2020, and 27% from its high on February 19.

Public opinion

How is the pandemic impacting the attitudes, fears, and daily lives of the American public? A number of surveys have already been conducted.

This week I am highlighting the latest COVID-19 survey from Pew Research Center. Among other things, Pew’s survey, conducted March 10–16, found that our impressions of the virus are related to the news sources we consume, as noted below.

Click here for full findings and methodology.

PS. Decennial census data collection

The United States’ once-per-decade complete population count is not, strictly speaking, about the COVID19. But data collection, which ultimately will impact everything from each states’ representation in Congress to the allocation of billions of tax dollars, is being impacted by the virus.

As of the nation’s official census reference date, April 1, the Census Bureau is reporting that 38.4% of U.S. households have completed their census questionnaires. This is up over 10 percentage points from last week. For helpful state by state comparisons, see the Census Bureau’s interactive map.