Viral data: Key indicators related to how COVID19 is impacting the U.S. (beta)
Author’s note: The coronavirus is impacting all aspects of life in America and beyond. Like many, those of us who work at the APM Research Lab are identifying ways we might contribute. Since our wheelhouse includes identifying useful data and making it more easily available and understandable, we are experimenting with developing a “dashboard” of a few relevant indicators, focused on national and, in some cases, state-level trends related to the times we are in.
I welcome your feedback on the usefulness of this information, and other ways we might contribute to the current crisis. If you want to see my spreadsheets (and help check my work), e-mail me at chelmstetter@apmresearchlab.org.
March 26th summary:
- Employment: 3.28 million Americans sought unemployment benefits in the third week in March. This is far and away the highest reported initial unemployment claim number ever reported in U.S. history.
- COVID19 screenings: About 132 in every 100,000 Americans has been screened, led by New York (over 500 per 100,000) and Washington (449).
- COVID19 diagnoses: About 19 of every 100,000 Americans have tested positive for COVID19, including a nation-leading 158 in every 100,000 New Yorkers
- COVID19 deaths: Just under 900 Americans are known to have died from COVID19. On a per capita basis, Washington, New York, Vermont, and Louisiana have the highest rates of deaths from the virus
- Stock market: The market has fallen precipitously, losing about one-quarter of its value over the past month.
- Public opinion: Over half of American adults are at least somewhat worried that they or a family member will become ill, and nearly as many are worried that they will lose savings and income.
- Decennial census: so far 26.2% of U.S. households have responded to the once-in-a-decade complete count.
COVID-19 Screenings, Cases, and Deaths
As the pandemic spreads across the country it is hitting local areas at different rates, and each state is developing its own response. Most often we hear national data, and even when we hear local numbers they are typically just that — numbers — not normalized to the population of the area(s) in question. Here we show screening, positive cases, and deaths as rates per 100,000 people to allow easier comparisons.
Though data sources and quality are rapidly evolving, The Covid 19 Tracking Project is doing at least as good a job as anyone, and (currently) a much better job than the CDC at trying to assemble screening information. Note: please see covidtracking.com for the methodology and limitations of their data.
Total screenings: Currently about 132 screenings have been conducted for every 100,000 Americans. Several states have higher rates, especially those where the virus appears to be spreading earlier. New York leads the nation, with over 500 screenings per 100,000, followed by Washington (449) and New Mexico (326).
Note: Hover over lines to see states and rates, and click here to see a full screen version of above graph.
Positive screenings: Currently about 19 of every 100,000 Americans have tested positive for COVID19. New York leads the nation in the rate of positive identifications by a longshot; 158 of every 100,000 New Yorkers has tested positive. New Jersey is a distant second place at 50 per 100,000, followed by Louisiana at 39 and Washington at 32.
Note: Hover over lines to see states and rates, and click here to see a full screen version of above graph.
Deaths: As of Wednesday, just under 900 people in the nation are known to have died from COVID19. This works out to less than 0.3 in every 100,000 Americans. Four states lead all others in death rates with New York (1.5), Louisiana (1.4), and Vermont (1.3) all approaching Washington’s rate of 1.6 COVID19 deaths per 100,000 people.
Note: Hover over lines to see states and rates, and click here to see a full screen version of above graph.
Unemployment
This morning the U.S. Department of Labor reported an astounding number of initial unemployment claims for the third week in March: 3.28 million. This is more than 11 times higher than the 282,000 reported for the previous week, which was itself a notable change from the average weekly claims of about 212,000 in January and February.
While unemployment claims are undoubtedly related to the pandemic, they are only loosely related to screening rates. For the week ending in March 21, Rhode Island, Nevada, and Pennsylvania lead the nation, at least in these not-seasonally-adjusted rates.
Note: Hover over map to see states and rates, and click here to see a sorted list of rates by state.
Stock market
The market is down dramatically. On March 25th, the S&P 500 closed at 2,476, down 24% from the index’s opening value of 3,258 on January 2, 2020, and 27% from its high on February 19.
Public opinion
How is the pandemic impacting the attitudes, fears, and daily lives of the American public? A number of surveys have already been conducted. This week I’ll highlight a set questions fielded by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
Among other things, KFF’s Coronavirus Poll, conducted March 11–15, 2020, found that over on-quarter of us are “very worried” about getting sick, losing value in our college and retirement savings, and losing job-related income. As the numbers elsewhere in this article suggest, these worries are not unfounded.
Decennial census data collection
The United States’ once-per-decade complete population count is not, strictly speaking, about the COVID19. But data collection, which ultimately will impact everything from each states’ representation in Congress to the allocation of billions of tax dollars, is being impacted by the virus.
The Census Bureau is reporting that 26.2% of U.S. households had responded by March 25th, the vast majority of whom (22.7%) had responded via the internet. For helpful state by state comparisons, see the Census Bureau’s interactive map.
